1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2022	341496	Caesar's Empire	Current	92	7.05	5.57	1.71
			Estimated	300	7.29	5.76	2.30

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
Caesar’s Empire is a 2-5 player game about building roads for the glory of Rome! Caesar’s Empire is set in the world of the beloved comic series - Asterix. However, instead of playing as one of the indomitable Gauls, this time around, you’ll be siding with the great Julius Caesar! As a member of his entourage, you’ve been tasked with expanding the limits of his empire. The one who brings the most glory to Rome will be richly rewarded! In Caesar’s Empire, you will be building Roads to connect Rome to new Cities across the board. Each time you build a Road, you score points. Every new City you reach will provide City and Treasure tokens that will be worth points at the end of the game. The game ends when Rome is connected to every City on the board. After adding the value of City and Treasure tokens to the points scored during the game, the player with the most points wins! Caesar’s Empire uses a simple network-building mechanic. Each time you build a Road, you must connect Rome to a new City by placing one or more of your Road pieces onto the game board. You may build your Road anywhere you like on the board, as long as you start from either Rome, or a City whose token has already been taken. This means you may be continuing a Road started by another player! When you reach a City, you get to take its token, which can be worth points at the end of the game. Each City also provides a Treasure token. Treasures you find are added to your player board and will score you points at the end of the game, especially if you manage to make collections! Once you’ve taken your City token and your Treasure, you score your route back to Rome. Each section of Road included in your route will score 1 point for the player it belongs to. As your route can include sections of Road placed by other players, you can end up giving points to your opponents! The game continues until all of the Cities on the board have been taken. Once the final City has been taken, players move on to final scoring. At the end of the game, you’ll score points based on your City tokens. Each City has a value, which is the number on the back. This is the number of points you’ll score for that City. However, if you have more than one City token of the same colour, you will only score points for the one of the highest value. You then score the value of the different collections of Treasure on your player board. Collections can be of the same Treasure or different Treasures, and Gold is scored separately. The player with the most points returns to Rome to be showered with fortune and glory by Caesar himself!

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/341496

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Caesar’s Empire? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Caesar’s Empire. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Caesar’s Empire. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	341496	Caesar's Empire	1.00	5.57	7.05	2.30	92
1	2017	223602	Klondike Rush	0.84	5.68	6.45	2.22	430
2	2017	213893	Yamataï	0.83	6.80	7.21	2.96	6,008
3	2016	179071	The Great Dinosaur Rush	0.83	5.93	7.05	2.08	682
4	2012	117914	Milestones	0.82	5.93	6.58	2.60	1,134
5	2002	3128	Clippers	0.81	5.87	6.58	2.61	942
6	2006	24773	On the Underground	0.81	6.32	6.90	2.44	2,448
7	2014	154327	City	0.81	5.51	6.08	2.80	35
8	2020	301084	Polynesia	0.81	5.81	6.96	2.40	473
9	2012	91050	Venture Forth	0.81	5.58	6.15	2.33	270
10	2017	225818	Mini Rails	0.81	6.17	6.95	2.11	1,464
11	2017	193291	Orient Express	0.80	5.58	7.08	2.60	98
12	2005	15364	Vegas Showdown	0.80	6.79	7.16	2.36	6,195
13	2010	67972	Workshop of the World	0.80	5.56	6.45	2.59	126
14	2003	8051	Attika	0.79	6.65	6.99	2.37	6,436
15	2008	35706	Carpe Astra	0.79	5.58	5.92	2.60	441
16	2015	158970	Nautilus Industries	0.79	5.64	6.72	2.43	233
17	2012	119637	Zug um Zug: Deutschland	0.79	6.08	7.56	1.88	733
18	2002	4318	Cannes: Stars, Scripts and Screens	0.79	5.62	6.16	2.47	398
19	2019	266179	Space Gate Odyssey	0.79	5.95	7.04	2.79	754
20	2017	226255	1920 Wall Street	0.79	5.79	6.74	2.29	573
21	2009	45319	Alcazar	0.78	5.57	6.04	2.77	293
22	1994	313	Big Boss	0.78	5.78	7.11	2.41	382
23	2018	249410	U.S. Telegraph	0.78	5.74	6.95	1.64	358
24	2009	27833	Steam	0.78	7.25	7.57	3.46	9,846
25	1995	2532	New York	0.78	5.51	5.85	2.17	54

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Caesar’s Empire while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	341496	Caesar's Empire	5.57	1.00	5.57	7.05	2.30	92
1	2017	213893	Yamataï	5.67	0.83	6.80	7.21	2.96	6,008
2	2009	27833	Steam	5.66	0.78	7.25	7.57	3.46	9,846
3	2009	43015	Hansa Teutonica	5.57	0.75	7.43	7.69	3.11	13,054
4	2005	15364	Vegas Showdown	5.44	0.80	6.79	7.16	2.36	6,195
5	2011	90419	Airlines Europe	5.34	0.77	6.93	7.30	2.44	7,083
6	2003	8051	Attika	5.25	0.79	6.65	6.99	2.37	6,436
7	2006	24773	On the Underground	5.14	0.81	6.32	6.90	2.44	2,448
8	2010	66362	Glen More	5.09	0.73	7.01	7.31	2.67	8,951
9	1999	94	Union Pacific	5.08	0.76	6.70	7.21	2.55	4,241
10	2006	25643	Arkadia	4.99	0.77	6.49	6.91	2.57	4,205
11	2017	225818	Mini Rails	4.97	0.81	6.17	6.95	2.11	1,464
12	2016	179071	The Great Dinosaur Rush	4.90	0.83	5.93	7.05	2.08	682
13	2012	117914	Milestones	4.86	0.82	5.93	6.58	2.60	1,134
14	2014	161882	Irish Gauge	4.81	0.73	6.58	7.31	2.39	2,558
15	2008	37387	Steel Driver	4.80	0.77	6.28	6.97	2.80	1,926
16	2005	19100	Hacienda	4.80	0.74	6.49	6.93	2.63	4,109
17	2012	119637	Zug um Zug: Deutschland	4.80	0.79	6.08	7.56	1.88	733
18	2017	223602	Klondike Rush	4.78	0.84	5.68	6.45	2.22	430
19	2002	3128	Clippers	4.78	0.81	5.87	6.58	2.61	942
20	2015	154086	Gold West	4.76	0.72	6.63	7.34	2.46	2,761
21	2020	301084	Polynesia	4.69	0.81	5.81	6.96	2.40	473
22	2016	191231	Via Nebula	4.68	0.71	6.58	7.04	2.22	4,185
23	2019	266179	Space Gate Odyssey	4.68	0.79	5.95	7.04	2.79	754
24	2018	250621	18Lilliput	4.63	0.77	6.04	7.18	3.40	822
25	2015	168433	The World of Smog: On Her Majesty's Service	4.62	0.77	5.97	6.83	2.46	1,021

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2022	341496	Caesar's Empire	Holy Grail Games	Matthieu Podevin	Alexandre Bonvalot	Ancient	Ancient: Rome	Network and Route Building
			Synapses Games		Joëlle Drans	Miniatures	Comic Books: Asterix	Set Collection
						Territory Building	Components: Map (Continental / National scale)
						Transportation	Theme: Construction

Individual Game Analysis